Ann: Phase 3 Trial in COVID-19 ARDS Surpasses 50% Enrollment, page-402

They would not be allowed to use an EAP in a Bayesian prior because it's not an RCT, sadly. Management did the right thing getting straight into the phase 3 RCT because in March we didn't know what would happen, a vaccine could have been ready by now, or another treatment, and as soon as you have a treatment or vaccine that's working your RCT is ruined because best SOC becomes way way better and your results are fried. They needed to move early and they did - full credit to management on that one.

For those people saying that the DSMB recommendation to continue the trial means that it works, it's true but also misleading, because it might not be statistically significant improvement, it could just be improvement. In the base of this trial, and what we saw in the EAP, I'm sure the effect is quite observable, but technically the "continuation" recommendation doesn't mean efficacy is guaranteed or even likely... it just means the trial is showing observable enough benefit that it will have a chance at significance by the end of the trial. So we could be doing SUPER well, or just OK.

Market is on a bit of a downswing because of renewed cases in US/Europe and the US election (stupid that the Victoria lockdowns have less of an effect on the ASX than viruses in another hemisphere?!) and in the first wave Mesoblast was a bit of a contrarian stock, so hopefully that will turn the tide a little on this slow downward drag.