Elmatadoor / others Back in early 2015 when the shares in...

Elmatadoor / others
Back in early 2015 when the shares in Imugene were less than 1 cent I thought they had better than an 80% chance of success and outperform they are now around 10 cents and I have re-rated their chance of success at least at 99% , (I still hold millions of shares in IMU).

Since Imugene, Adalta in my mind is the most promising stock I've seen ( I rate it at better than 80% chance of success ) and based on the risk reward as you will see below looks even better (on a percentage basis) than what I have ever thought of what might be possible from Imugene.

In my opinion The risk reward on this stock is eye watering;
why I've invested:.

1. excellent management and scientific advisory Board, (many of whom have a lot of $ in shares)
2. Addressable market is around $3.5 billion
3. only two other drugs to compete with (neither of which are very effective)
4. early signs this drug will likely be very effective.
5.big chance if the safety works out good, then good possibly that big pharma could come with an upfront payment and licensing agreement the upfront payment would see us able to fully fund this drug right through the rest of the trials, with no more share dilution.

looking a few years out from now then:
with only 245 million shares on issue and an ongoing royalty of say 10% on sales of $3.5 billion = $350 million in yearly revenue
thats around $1.40 income per share per year, this would allow the company to research other products and also be in a position to pay out dividends

why might big pharma want to do a deal so soon? well maybe because of covid 19 they might be predicting that over the next few years the addressable market could easily go many times bigger than just $3.5 billion,
therefore company earnings would also be much bigger than $350,000,000
and then research options and dividends and would also be bigger.

best regards to all
fp