Ann: Phase III Clinical Trial Update and New IIH Market Analysis, page-62

A brutal announcement, although like many have said above its not all lost, with $23M in the bank and just ~$1M annual overheads and a couple M coming back in R&D refunds, they can tread water here for 6 months and find their way through an accelerated trial. Whether that's for a $700M EU market rather than a $1B market with other drugs like Ozempic out there, that is yet to be seen. Add TBI afterwards for a leveraged exit value upon IIH success Phase III, they could still sell for a few hundred million to a company already manufacturing similar GLP products with clear acquisition synergies.

That being said, its a brutal announcement leading into EOFY where the tax loss harvesting incentive is obviously at its peak. The commentary is brutally realistic from the company, and poses new risks and a time opportunity cost for shareholders which explains the premarket share price cliff leading into EOFY.

Its frustrating given that Alex Sinclair held a presentation in Israel a few months ago with a slide suggesting April 2024 for the end of the trial (which led many of us to believe the trial recruitment was on track.) Further fuelled by the clinical.gov updates showing 23/40 trial centres going online which was inline with my estimates - although the trial recruitment within such centres obviously wasn't going to projections.

Side swiped and an absolute roller coaster from the TBI price rerate - I second Raloms thoughts below.

The joys of the ASX and biotechs with binary catalyst events such as this - we experienced the good 3 days ago, and the bad today with what risks these stocks run. Its risks we all know but doesn't make it feel any better experiencing them.