Ann: Phoenix project drilling update, page-47

The switch is happening. But it's starting with electricity generation where already more is invested in renewables than fossil every year. Most new capacity in many regions now coming from renewables, but a long way to replacing existing fossil capacity. Fossils still needed for when the sun and the wind aint.

As for the combustion engine, the switch is decades behind imho. Pure electric not even where hybrid was 15 years ago, and where has hybrid got to, perhaps 1%.

OK decarbonisation of vehicles will happen faster than the take up of hybrids, but it's being driven by regulation, such as banning diesel, European fuel efficiency standards etc. It's all forcing technology change, but don't forget the time lags, maybe a decade or two from early models to mainstream, and then two decades to actually replace most of the vehicle fleet.

Maybe we won't be using much oil by 2050 but I"ll bet we"ll still be heavily using it in 2040 and in 2030 my expectation is that electrification will only have had a minor impact on consumption. I'd say the writing could well be clearly on the wall by 2030 though.

I"d say there is pretty clear scope for oil and gas developments right through the 20's, esp. for gas. I'd be less clear about the 30's. Plus I wouldn't touch thermal coal even now, decarbonisation of the power sector is too advanced imho.

Opinions on this bound to differ, but I don't believe CVN is too late with oil, and especially not with gas.

EL