Ross Murdoch’s presentation did mention TPM injectables and explain why this is now the focus of POH’s internal R & D program in Human Health. But there were no further clues as to what or when. My personal view is that the company is playing its cards close to its chest on this one for commercial competitive reasons. I believe that there will be a patent submitted for each injectable and I wouldn’t be surprised if a patent is filed prior to the first injectable being identified. In the presentation released to the market on September 1, which was the same presentation used at the AusBiotech event, it stated that the initial TPM injectable candidate was on track to enter development before the end of this year. There’s been no indication given that this timeline has changed.
As to why only the arbitration and animal feed program were mentioned as the two areas of interest for investors in the short term… My guess is, knowing that investors are likely to be focused on those activities most likely to raise sp, RM has emphasised the two areas he sees as most likely to do that over the next 6 months. An injectable candidate entering development, in my view, is unlikely to come into that category.
With respect to the arbitration, it’s notable that RM went out of his way to discuss it in this interview, as he did in the AusBiotech presentation. Typically, companies don’t widely broadcast their commercial disputes. In this case, RM and the Board are well and truly sticking their necks out. I realise that some hold the view that this is just a sign of desperation but I don’t buy that. The reason could be partly strategic in my view but I also get the sense that, with both parties having now laid their cards on the table, the Board has a genuinely strong belief that there will be a positive outcome for POH from this arbitration.
Animal feed, the other activity he highlighted, is one that has largely flown under the radar. Mention of animal feed here usually just sets off a string of dismissive insults and jokes. I know that Anatara used to cop the same…. As a certain biotech blog commentator said in mid-2015 “I would never invest in this company because it is fundamentally stupid, and so are the assholes that have invested in it.” Well, that “fundamentally stupid” company signed an option agreement with Zoetis (ex-Pfizer) last year and formal negotiation of an international agreement was announced last month. ANR’s market cap, btw, is now $45 m.
The animal feed additive program certainly wasn’t dismissed in any way by RM in either the interview with Scott Power or in the AusBiotech presentation. To recap, the dairy feed trial (milk quality and fertility outcomes) was announced to have commenced June 1 last year. So far, we’ve been told that there’s been “pleasing progress” and that there should be results before the end of the year. We’ve also been told POH is seeking regulatory approval of TPM as a feed additive for pigs in both the EU and US. Due diligence by major global feed companies was said to be ongoing in H1 this year and the continued interest of several global feed companies was mentioned again this week. Any announcement of a deal with a major global feed company over the next 6 months would further validate TPM in oral delivery and cause investors to rerate this stock, imo.
POH Price at posting:
1.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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