MNB 0.00% 5.8¢ minbos resources limited

Ann: Phosphate Fertilizer Project Update, page-138

  1. 14,224 Posts.
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    "Outstanding project that everyone is dumping and no one wants to fund"

    More straight out lies. IDC has given its credit approval to fund more than 50% of the remaining capex needs and at least one Angolan bank has expressed interest to fund remaining capex.

    Including when volumes were briefly higher following the cr, just as many shares were bought as sold so saying everyone is dumping is always wrong no matter what. There are always buyers. With volumes currently very light again and the Top 20 register having barely changed in many months, it's clear as day that "everyone" dumping" is another false statement.

    The company has clear production targets based on a customer's offtake requirements, DFS backed cash costs, extensive trials showing relative effectiveness and a good idea on selling price. Based on those, it's not difficult to expect annual earnings starting at around A$30mill with strong growth potential from stage 2 likely to quickly boost earnings. It's quite reasonable to then have a market cap target of at least A$300mill, excluding any value for the larger green ammonia project, which translates to a reasonable expectation of a sp target of around 30c once in production, which is expected to be next year.
    Despite that target being reasonable and substantiated, Merchant considers it ramping and counters it with statements he knows are blatant lies. It's ridiculously hypocritical for an obvious downramper to accuse others with reasonably determined targets of pumping a stock.

    On another point, A4N has around a billion dollar market cap and ALL of its debt funding will come from the Australian government. Minbos is not borrowing from the Angolan government.
    We could ask why did A4N have to rely on the Australian government to fund its project if it's such a great project - and it is. However that would be an ill-informed and misleading question.
    We could also ask if A4N's products are so good, then why has it taken around 4 years to secure the first initial offtake letters of intent amounting to only 20% of production still? They do have enough strong interest for management to make the FID. That extended time taken to start securing offtakes has a lot to do with the complexity and high purity nature of ther products. It hasn't mattered how long it's taken. The market cap is near a billion, finance is now looking likely to be fully secured - with very similar preconditions to MNB's. Despite its huge challenges, all that matters is that A4n now has reached its construction phase. Mnb should reach the same stage in just 1-2 months but with a much shorter construction period with a much simpler and smaller plant being required. Ie Minbos will be at full profit at least 1-2 years ahead of A4N.

    Its interesting that delays and missed timelines exceeding MNB's delays and earnings more than 3 years out didn't stop A4N reaching a billion dollar market cap a year ago. I think people here are much more critical of missed timelines because of the lower sp.




 
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