"imo Based on risks and all failed previous talks on funding"
The only funding arrangements that I recall being announced were;
The proposed debt facility by the cornerstone investor back in 2022, which hasn't happened
The IDC loan, which has been approved
The Angolan bank/s which is new and ongoing and looks likely to proceed based on their needs to fill quotas to the agricultural sector as well as the very compelling project economics which led to the IDC debt approval.
So what are "all failed previous talks"? Shouldn't that be one failed debt facility, which has been replaced by the IDC now?
How do you determine that it's overvalued? How are you measuring level of risk against likely company value at production?
Funding risk was substantially reduced with the IDC approval, cash from the recent cr and the recent applications with Angolan banks.
Without numbers, opinions are simply opinions. Unsubstantiated and meaningless to others to state that something is overvalued with nothing to back that up.
Even at a fully diluted mc of $66mill - and that number includes allowance for another A$9mill cr at 5c as detailed in my post yesterday, that is a huge discount to a DFS NPV of over A$300mill.
IDC is approved and its pre-conditions will be satisfied if MNB secures another A$9mill for capex and a US$10mill working capital facility from the Angolan banks, as well as converting the BINDING MOU with Carrinho into a contract.
With a binding MOU, major plant components paid for and delivered to site and only A$9mill left to finish funding the capex on a project with an after tax NPV of over A$300mill - and that's only MNB's 85% share, the odds of completing funding look relatively very good.
To state the current mc below $50mill is undervalued, implies a very high chance of failure to secure the last A$9mill.
I think based on all the above, the odds of securing that A$9mill for this project are WELL above 50%, so a mc closer to A$150mill is justified with a 50% risk discount. That's equivalent to around 15cps or 12.5cps assuming the additional dilution of a further cr and all options being exercised - even the options well out of the money currently. That's how I determine that this is very undervalued. Get into construction and those sp targets double again.
To say this is overvalued based on an opinion and nothing to substantiate that opinion is not much use to anyone else.
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