"So chuk what you telling everyone is that MNB is going to go to 8cents and form a cup and handle"
I didn't say that at all. I said it's just formed a saucer bottom pattern and the chart clearly shows that.
"the bloke in charge says trust me it’s all good, heard this story so many times and it always ends in pain and misery."
Always or just currently? The 4 year chart below shows very big swings both ways.
The stock has just had a big cyclical move down but is still up threefold in four years. I know that's not as reassuring for those of us that bought later than four years ago but the next swing up should be more sustainable and current prices are unlikely to be revisited after the company commences construction and production. A low has formed and that next upswing looks like it might be just starting to show.
This stock has a habit of climbing 2-3 fold in very short periods of less than 4 months. See chart below.
Can the stock do the same again? Completion of finance and construction news will be much bigger than any news in the past so if those are locked in, then why not? Market cap is just $50mill versus better than $300mill valuation on MNB's 85% share of the project. That makes it capable of doing much more than a three fold sp rise on funding and construction news. The Carrinho offtake news appears closer and should get the next upswing into motion.
Carrinho not only have a billion dollar food processing facility that they can't currently fill without affordable phosphate for Angola but they also want to DOUBLE the size of that plant. MNB's product is very competitive on price versus imports while providing comparable results to NKP fertilisers. If that wasn't enough - and it is - Carrinho will have to buy from MNB because of a legal requirement to buy local product over imported. MNB will be both very competitive and have a legal moat on their business. MNB's product also has the advantage of working well over several years while traditional phosphate fertilisers get locked up in the acidic Angolan soil and do not provide ongoing benefits beyond the first season the way MNB's fertiliser does.You don't need to just trust what "the bloke in charge" says, the product and years of multiple field trial results, as well as Carrinhos large and growing requirements all speak for themselves.
Wait for the news or watch for the next upswing. I think it could be large and sharp once it gets momentum.
