"Unlike others here I'm not at all worried about getting a signed contract with Carrinho. Their business plan needs us, once we're in production they don't even have the option to import fertiliser. More importantly our phosphate suits Angolan soils, lasts in the soils for 3 years."
On the surface, yes, Carrinho HAS TO buy from us if we complete the construction. But that doesn't necessarily mean we have a strong negotiation power against Carrinho. It's a completely different story. If you look closely at how things have progressed, you will notice that something really doesn't add up to the great story.
I will just list out a few key points:
1. In 2022, Lindsay said that production will begin mid-2023, and that they were trying to obtain non-dilutionary funding and PRE-SALE funding. I think he completely overestimated the importance of Minbos to this country and thus underestimated the length and difficulty of funding. Not only did we not yet receive a cent of debt funding to our bank account, we recently had a CR that was as dilutive as it possible could. Presale-funding is a common practice for manufacturers of highly desired commodities, and yet it looks like Carrinho will not fork out a cent for us despite our importance to their objectives. Talking about negotiation power here, who's owning whom?
2. IIRC, Lindsay also said that they were working on converting the MOU in a formal sales agreement shortly after receiving the signed MOU July last year. As it has still not transpired (close to 1 year already), either he only started trying to do it just now, or it has been a painful process for whatever reason(s) for Minbos to get this sales contract signed. Another detail to not take this for granted.
3. Until we actually do get some funding from the government, it's all just a circus trying to lure foreign manufacturers to this country. This is the most important test of how MNB is truly perceived by this country. I simply do not accept the notion that we are important to this country (despite countless articles and opinions indicating that we are) if we get zero funding from some Angolan institution(s).
So yes, the concerns are still there, and some of us are waiting for clearer signals to how successful this project will actually be, besides the numbers. Beware of a last minute surprise buyout from some entity to kick Lindsay and his team out of the country, which I think is unlikely but not impossible based on the worrying signs of how slow and difficult things have been for this "nationally important" project. It just really really does not add up when we are now in this pathetic position despite the prospects.
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