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Ann: Phosphate Fertilizer Project Update, page-355

  1. 14,228 Posts.
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    I was wondering what happened to the sell order for 1 mill shares at 6c last week. That sell order seemed to cap the price below 6c for a few weeks with the help of lower trading volumes and a possible expectation that any news might be at least 1-2 months away. Another shareholder sent me the following screen shots that indicate that when buyers started to chip into that sell order, the seller moved up from 6c to 8c. Was it intentional capping or did they just realise that they might be able to sell at a much better price before too long? It really doesn't matter.
    At the general meeting, Lindsay said he was expecting the Carrinho offtake contract to be signed this month and he said it could be in the next 1-2 weeks. That was a week ago so we might see it this week. Hopefully that helps move things along with the other two preconditions of the IDC loan. To me there is very little doubt of satisfying those preconditions and it's all about the timing now so the sooner we get the Carrinho offtake the better, especially for investor sentiment.
    Recent announcements have stated that there is considerable investor interest. There was also mention at the meeting of bringing in an important strategic investor, potentially at a significant premium to the last cr price. That goes against concerns on HC of a future cr at lower than the current sp - and I have also factored in the potential for another cr at a 5c sp as my base case scenario. We don't know if we will see a new investor come in at a premium - but if we do, it should be very well received. Not only would it show larger players understand just how undervalued the project is but it would also satisfy a second IDC loan precondition. The third precondition of a working capital facility should be easier to secure and hopefully in quicker time with the other two satisfied. If the company secures cash from an investor, there is no reason why construction couldn't start immediately following receipt of that cash.
    It's possible that it all comes together relatively quickly now. Construction is scheduled to begin by the end of next month. Earlier would be great to see.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6235/6235741-bca6b7e60e143547a7ba8db25b7afc45.jpg




    Last edited by chuk: 11/06/24
 
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