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Ann: Phosphate Fertilizer Project Update, page-401

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Merchant2000

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19/06/24

07:46

Post #: 74380648
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Originally posted by chuk: ↑

I think some here don't appreciate that this stock is already heavily oversold. Yes, I agree that another big delay could see a lower sp but that would only make it even more oversold. The current sp must be factoring in a lot of potential further negatives.
I say that because for any company with the following stats, a mc of $50mill makes no sense unless a lot of further negative potential is being priced in.

Even if production was 2-3 years out, let alone the currently planned less than 12 months on a project requiring only around another US$10mill to fund its capex on a project with a DFS after tax NPV of US$202mill or over A$300mill, a mc of A$50mill is simply far too low.
So I think the current mc and sp is already factoring in further delays and good news to ease those fears of another delay should see a very strong rally.
Confirmation that the project is on track for next year should see a re-rate to at least a mc near half the NPV which would be around 15c.
Once in production, assuming no major setbacks, the mc should get closer to the after tax NPV or closer to 30c. We can discount that for options but there should also be good upside to that because of the large capex savings and strong brought forward cash flows on stage 1 forecast for years 1-7 relative to the DFS forecasts.
Capex savings alone of US$10mill on stage 1 and US$25mill stage 2 relative to the DFS, adds US$35mill or A$52mill to the NPV, as long as stage 2 is brought forward. That's worth the current mc or another 5c. That still doesn't factor in further upside from a further boost to cash flows from a much earlier stage 2 expansion to export product to SA.

Once production is underway, the company focus can start to move to the green ammonia project and investors can start to price something in for that project. I'm not forgetting that this green ammonia project is possibly the best green ammonia project in the world right now on costs by quite a large margin. What will that be worth relative to the current mc?

I here a lot here on potential downside from the already very low 5.5c and $50mill mc. There might be a further 1 or 2c downside but I think a more likely chance of 15-25c upside in around 12 months. That's a pretty good risk/reward scenario right now.

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@chuk

So you think SP has factored in further delays ???

Some will stop at nothing to protect one's mistakes of the past

You were told in early 2023 - what was going to happen

This more than likely will not end well for shareholders and new all time lows inevitable if delays become reality

IMO

MNB Price at posting: 5.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 5.1¢		Change -0.002(3.77%)		Mkt cap ! $44.12M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.4¢	5.4¢	5.0¢	$31.55K	599.5K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	169000	5.1¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
5.3¢	85488	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	169000	0.051
6	280474	0.050
2	74817	0.049
1	110	0.048
1	150000	0.045

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.053	85488	3
0.054	100000	1
0.055	90986	3
0.056	121119	3
0.057	12500	1

Last trade - 14.32pm 21/06/2024 (20 minute delay)

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