re: Ann: Pictorial 16 - Comprehensive Project...
Hi Hotrock.
CDU do indeed own their own fleet of trucks, and owned them at the time of the consultants' report when they estimated the LOM cost of $3.40. Therefore, surely, they would have taken the fleet ownership into account when calculating the $3.40? How could they not have been negligent not to do that? So, for the company to state that it "attributes the reduced costs to owning its own mining fleet .." is disingenuous, is it not? They've always owned the mining fleet. But to claim that the mining costs in the first few months compare "extremely favourably with the projected $3.40 per tonne from pre-development mining studies" without even mentioning that the $3.40 is the LOM cost it makes it sound as though the estimated costs associated with this stage of mining were $3.40 - which is not the case.
All the above is fact, not opinion.
"The Cu price is up" True. Fact. "and the demand is not going to fall in the long term"; probably correct, but there is a lot more supply coming into the market in 2014/15 which doesn't guarantee stable or rising prices. Plus who knows what the Chinese authorities will do.
But here you are being one eyed. Cu is only half of the equation. The Co price has more than halved, which almost totally neutralises the rises in copper price for the CuEq equation and the value of the project.
Yes, I have, over the years, provided in-depth analyses, the latest being on the costs and timetable of the project from company announcements. Back in 2011, for example, when the company first stated that production would commence in late 2012, I gave my reasons as to why that was most unlikely to happen, and that they would be pushed to start in 2013, and early 2014 was the most likely time. So you see, even I can be over-optimistic on CDU! You may regard some posts as being shallow and superficial: my biggest mistake is probably assuming that I am replying to investors who have actually read the company's announcements. For instance, there are still posters who cannot accept that the company has stated, unequivocally, that the Mineral Processing Plant is costing $300m. It is difficult arguing with people who do not read, or will not accept, company statements. Whether such people take me lightly or not is of little concern to me.
As to a reputation amongst some HC posters regarding my motives, they are welcome to their conspiracy theories.
There is no doubt, whichever way you try to calculate it, that the project is over budget and behind schedule. The crusher circuit has been undergoing commissioning and test ore crushing for nearly three months now, its commencement of commissioning having been over seven months late from the initial completion date. Let the company start meeting targets, and the downramping will cease.
If I did buy out a cheapy - well, there wouldn't be any other shareholders to worry about, would there? But I've already got two businesses, and don't really have time for another. Thanks for the thought, though.
CDU Price at posting:
$2.15 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
