Ann: Piedmont Lithium Reports Q4 & Full Year 2023 Results, page-20

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cmonaussie

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28/03/24

21:30

Post #: 73112960
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Originally posted by cmonaussie: ↑

Well for starters DF I'd say
Current cash of ~US$120M (after sales of 100% of SYA and ~50% of A11)
FY 24 (Jan - Dec) outlay at mid point ~$47M being
~$12M Capex on PLL 100% projects
~$35M for investments in (SYQ) and advances to (A11) affliates

So right there PLL has $2.55 for every $1 expected in FY24 Capex

But wait they have expenses right. So I'll just take the FY23 of US$43M of SG&A and reduce that by $10M from cutting expenses and layoffs

So you could say they now have only ~$1.50 to cover a $1 of all-in-spend. Annualizing Q4 result is a bad idea given the necessary adjustments (do you really think -$500 ASP for SC5.5 is true reflection .... no because it had an adjustment to the much higher price recorded in Q3).

Then there is the question of how much OCF comes from NAL ... been told that as PLL sells more shipments under its OTA with TSLA and LG pricing will stabilise versus spot currently. So Q4 was in the toilet and maybe Q1 stays there and unless you're rooting for Lithium to stay in the toilet for 2024, PLL will make good money via its OTA (especially TSLA which is based on Hydroxide).

That'll do for starters

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This is what I meant by "PLL will make good money via its OTA (especially TSLA which is based on Hydroxide)"

Per Sigma Lithium recent auction
"The final price net of VAT is equivalent to 8.75% of the LME Lithium Hydroxide CIF/Fastmarkets CJK price."
that price was US$1,333/t (inc VAT).
https://sigmalithiumresources.com/sigma-lithium-secures-premium-final-price-of-us-1333-t-for-22000-t-of-quintuple-zero-lithium-with-85-pre-payment-for-delivery-in-2-weeks/

So, it gets down to what exactly is the formula used by PLL/TSLA but the intent is clear - TSLA/PLL price is disconnected from CIF SC6 price - a good thing. Before grade adjustments its still a buy at US$900 and sell at US$1,333 (less tax adjustments).

PLL Price at posting: 20.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

2 Great analysis

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