@Weindryn that level makes sense. It is never just picking a level under the current circumstance. Someone pointed out AJM raising level that continued falling in sympathy with the sector bearishness. I’m need a bit more careful thought about how to get in or sideline.
@Acgm yes and no wrt short volume. It has s 2-3 days lag and can be misleading sometimes as timing of ST cover may not show up immediately etc., but falling price against a large % of short is indicative the market has more than technical chart positioning in mind. It could also be that some of the shorts are in fact LT holder hedging their positions. Plenty of potential reasons to explain the price behavior of the past. That’s all done.
Moving forward, trying to make a case of ‘sell in boom buy in doom’ is not so easy besides the superficial philosophy. I’m worried about the debt sustainability going forward if the Spod prices continue to fall.
Here is a list of the potential risks:
One mine operator
Recovery issues
Circuit design flaw (?)
Customer scale back from agreed commitments
Are they profitable(?)
Running down stock pile currently
Spod prices still falling
All peers are still falling
CHOP (? Lol) this one is for the jokes.
Chinese subsidy tweaking
Trade tariffs
Chinese vehicles sales still contracting
Now the positives:
Large capital injection
Big battery operators supporting as well as directorship
Recovery can only improve
Depending on cash burn, it has a lot of time tolerance going foreword
EV market is still finding car manufacturers offering more models worldwide
Trade talk resumption
I’m sure there are a few more positives and/or negatives I have not considered both operationally as well as general Market sentiments. From a global perspective based on growth economic numbers, the bond yield are quite clear; it is stuck in a low growth condition with no triggers in sight for a contrarian reasoning. So maybe this is the time to look for that anticipated recovery? Has all the DOOM been factored in yet?
A40 collapse is a start, junior story telling is now showing signs of quick money punting then leaving as the ‘johnny Come lately’ pump and dump is in motion.
Good luck to all the holder’s. I’m unconvinced either view so far. I need accounting 101 lessons, an on going burden of ignorance. One thing I know when topical discussion is based on future growth with mouth watering conclusion against the reality, some confirmation bias is still taking place.
Good luck and ignore my rant. I’m just thinking aloud.
(20min delay)