Apologies update to above I forgot about tax - scale it up 30% so $2.85k USD to $3.57k USD per ton to hit $10 EPS with lower bound being JVs are moderately performing and upper bound being no benefit from JVs
I think if we scale up and pricing has a good year could get to $10 but I don't think it would stay ($10) there would likely settle $7 to $8 assuming market pricing stabilises between 2k to 3k USD per tonne of spodumene - haven't dug into Hydroxide pricing just assumed 2k Spod equates to $20kUSD hydroxide where a plant could operate at 50% loose net prof margin with that pricing so $200m per JV after tax in AUD earnings per year
so JVs come to like half a bil in profit cumulatively in a low long term (2kUSD/t spod pricing scenario) and flicking to maybe $700 to $900m in a really good year.
all IMHO not financial advise I am a retail investor like you all and just do grade 10 maths on things I don't understand
Ann: Pilbara Minerals Expands Ganfeng Offtake Agreement, page-123
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