I think you should look wider on the potential influences for manipulation.
I think you need to start thinking about it from a sovereign entity perspective not a simple “seller and buyer” point of view.
What “if” some sovereign entity (or entities) recognised that their economy was now or soon will be very significantly undermined by a single industry and that industry was facing pressures of competition internationally? What if that sovereign entity or entities was concerned to protect that industry in its national interests? Might it be possible that entity would spend up internally to attempt to reduce potential external (international) competition? Sure it might cost refiners a bit more to take lower quality and more costly to produce input materials - but what if those converters were receiving some sort of sovereign entity “benefit” which offsets those costs? I
I mean heck, even in Australia we provide favourable tax arrangements to certain industries to support their development - and that is on a small scale without the same potential larger implications to what perhaps some sovereign entities are facing in their overall economies.
Isn’t that, at its heart what the IRA and the $7,500 per car rebates all about in the US? Now - what equivalents are being provided through the supply chain and manufacturing chain in other countries? Hmmm … I think the “manipulation” needs to be considered a little more broadly than just a “buyer and seller” consideration.
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