This time next year, Yibin Tanyi's chemical converter plant expansions will demand an extra 150ktpa. Where will they be getting this new supply?
We have Plant 2 supply unallocated but their previous buyers will be most interested in tapping that supply again.
We could begin Stage 2a expansion but that will only yield another 100ktpa ... and that will take 9 months to construct.
Surely there must be announcement very soon to begin the entire Stage2 expansion.
Our shipments look to approach 100kt for the Mar21 quarter, despite full production of ~80kt for the quarter. We only have inventories left to do that for one more quarter.
We need to expand to meet demand ... very soon.
If we could get US$650pt, we could finance our own expansions.
With the Plant 1 upgrade and firing up Plant 2, we could have 600ktpa in production, with a gross margin of ~US$300pt.
That's A$235mpa in EBITDA, with our first year tax free due to carry forward losses.
We could do Plant 1 Stage 2 expansion with that and then follow with Stage 3.
We get in first and let the wannabes wait for us to max out. However by then we would've increased our resource and be talking Plant 3.
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