Good to see MSR continues to meet its targets.
Simple NPV(10%) on indicated plus inferred cashflow is $130m or 45cps. The key questions for here are:
1. Mining license (obviously). MSR quite carefully don't give any timeframe but lets hope this is forthcoming in early Q1. All the signs are that it will be granted its just a matter of when.
2. CAPEX and how it will be funded. The key question for me now. I noticed that OPEX has gone up significantly as part of the update. I'm not worried about OPEX as this would still place Shambesai in/close to the bottom quartile of producers and leave it with a $1000/oz+ margin. However CAPEX is another matter - an increase of CAPEX from 20m to 30m would be quite dilutionary.
3. Funding of CAPEX: How plausable is a 50:50 debt:equity split? So a CR of only 10-15m which, even at 20c (minimum price) would only result in an extra 50-75m shares. This would take total shares on issue out toward the 350m mark but future MSR drilling for a big carlin deposit would be funded out of cashflow. A find of 3-5m oz with only 350m shares on issue could push MSR SP into the $5 range.
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