Yep, lots of new shares, hard to see the SP taking off from here in the short term, especially with efficacy results due towards the end of next year. That is quite a way off.
If I compare it with a company like DXB, (another small molecule play), they've only recently added value to the SP. Their MC hovered around $20 - $30 million for ages with their drug much further along the road. It's never like for like in these things, but when I take that example, I struggle to see this stock jumping on from here without significant news flow.
IMO, raising now is a good idea. I don't believe 1AD would be able to raise at a premium to the current price in 6 months unless they can get some GE style partnerships up. Which is possible, but COVID is hampering deals of all types at present so that would be difficult. The macro situation could very well be much worse too.
When any business says they have six months of runway to finish XYZ - it never means they are not going to secure the future of the company by conducting a CR before that time. You see it time and time again on the ASX. My rule is that if a company has less than a year's cash expect a CR at any point in time despite what might be said; it's the hustle of the ASX and capital raising is why we are all here.
I like Adalta and will be looking to add to my position over the next year slowly. I suspect the SP may go lower as boredom kicks in and people move funds for the usual reasons and I'll look to take advantage of that. Happy to be wrong of course, all IMO.
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