everyone has to do there on likelihood assessment.
I agree with your general sentiment
@Benjy.
however an additional factor is that TON has a track record of extending the options.
therefore 4 cases to consider
scenario 1: TONOD in money before expiry (possible if finance drops but unlikely in my view given new TONOE offer and Mozambique being in a COVID shut down).....however today's announcement did mention expected work to commence in Q42020.....however I don't rate TON management timelines seriously any more.
scenario 2: TONOE are in the money. I see this as likely. key event is finance being approved. plus tax loss for TONOD.
scenario 3: more delays and there is a TONOF offer. there is a precedent for this. I let my TONOC expire. probably a correct decision but I didn't account for another TONOE renewal.
scenario 4: TONOE expire with no renewal...and all you get is a tax loss.
