Results, and CR - the game has changed?.
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Before you read further, I have a request. I know most here are long-term holders. 10c is nothing, 20c, 30c, 50c is the goal. i understand. Also those read my posts, I do look for short-term trades. I know many like to look in a derogatory way on such characters, and I got a response last week as well, but as I wrote, we are all here to make some coins. We may have different ways. There is no right or wrong, at least morally. And most importantly, everyone's circumstance/expectation may be different. Some may be happy when their pockets are full, others only when their big bags are full.
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So most long termers, please ignore.
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My first buy and post 4 weeks back, i wrote I bought around 4. SNT wasn't loved that time. There were many pushes below 4. I was buying that time. I made a post when I had bought my fill, my average was 4, I wrote that 4 weeks back. I was thinking there will be a gradual rise. Why? Before I bought, the stock was coming from 1s and 2s and 3s and 4s and had reached 5.8. But it could not sustain it. Pushed down hard, towards 3.6. I was eyeing it for sometime, so thought to take a punt. I bought very good amount at average 4 and wrote 4 weeks back.
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The stock price was not moving. We were getting closer towards December 10 deadline and still it was sitting around 4/early 4s. Our resident reporter, who does the most of heavy lifting, NZ was even lamenting few days before - I was hoping it would get closer towards 6 as we reach Dec 10. So general expectation, I deduce, was that getting towards 6 may have been good enough, let alone reach 7.3. Around 2 weeks back I wrote I had sold one-third of my buys at 5.6, around 40% gain. I wrote, I usually play around with one-third. I do that with most of my holding. I also wrote I will buy if it goes higher. I did. And I bought back what I sold. Then the following week, it reached 7.3. Most expectation was - if it reaches 6 it will be good. Clearly, it reached or exceeded many people's expectation. And that's fair. We don't know what's going to happen. I felt, it got a bit ahead of itself, and I sold most of my stock and wrote that last week, third week of my holding. Some didn't like my selling, or reason for selling, trying to brand me as pip-trader, etc. Its ok, we all have our views.
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I was thinking technicals will play this week, on news, which was already guaranteed to be somewhat positive - a rise from 4 to 7.3 - am 80% rise on no news. Sorry, did I say no news? There were some in the know. Nobody asked Hashan why price increased from 4 to 7.3 before announcement of results?. But then came CR. At 6. If you are long term, whether you buy at 5s or 6s does not matter that much, because expectation is it will go to 20s and 30s etc. But if you are not long term, or if you do not have confidence that it may go to 20s or 30s, what do you do? Either you take a punt, or play cautiously. Individual choice. There is no right or wrong. If you win, it may look right. If you lose, wrong.
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So why am I writing this? I like SNT. Hence I am here. But based on my play of several hundred stocks, sometimes there is no guarantee. I uses to take big risks before, hence I gained 25 bags on IMU and 20 on QPM - both kept me in stock market, all my posts are there. Before 2022, I was taking big risks. But after the 2022 stock price crash, I have become cautious. Where I am not sure, I do short-term trades. I have not reached that stage to be comfortable in SNT to take the big leap. Where I will just buy and hold. And future will take care of rest. Hopefully.
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So why have I not reached that stage? First, I am not strong fundamentally. Secondly, there is lot of bad breadth from before. It can be convenient to brush it aside. But one has to know why it was there, and most importantly, why it will not be there in future. I have not reached that stage of understanding. I am still reading, trying to understand. One day, maybe. PXS/SNT has a lot of history, sometimes bad history. Sometimes its good to know, because it can say what may happen in future.
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So anything can happen from here. When it fell below 6, I did buy, but got out. I have a small holding now. So, why do I have a small holding after liking the stock? Firstly, I have locked in some good profits, so now I can play without any worry - to certain extent. Secondly, I am still not comfortable that a rise from 4 to 7.3 happened in such a short term, all in anticipation of results. Thirdly, I want to wait till next Thursday when CR shares are issued - before that I will take action on any price action - up or down. Fourthly, there is a big holder selling. My first 4 weeks back, I wrote someone is selling. There have been multiple broker coverage. One said when it was 4, their target was 8. We nearly reached there, 7.3. Next Bell Potter, 6 to 10. Still a way to go. Others talking about 20c. So is there a logic - 8c/10c/20c - it looks to me like a punt rather than conviction. I could be wrong. So I will play cautiously. I am low in stock. I want to buy. I will see how it goes. I still feel something good may happen here, no guarantee, but odds are not bad. All the best.
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