Looking at Gemfields, in their first year (2013) they produced 1.9 million carets, stepping up to 6.5M the following year and 10.3M last year.
Call it $30 per caret and maybe 8M carets a year conservatively, the $2M a month looks realistic.
Any super prices for larger stones that may occur are a bonus, but not the basis of the business bread and butter cash flow, unless they start finding high quality on a regular basis
From Sept 2015 media article: "Gemfields reports that since coming online in mid-2012, the mine has produced eight million carats of corundum: 60% light or pink colored corundum; 20 to 25% lower quality ruby; 10-12% medium quality ruby; and approximately 8% fine material. It has been mining much faster than its gravel washing and sorting operations could handle, so it plans to double its washing plant throughput from 120 to 250 metric tons per year."
Gemfields has NPV of close to 1 Billion US: • July 2015: • JORC Compliant Resource of 467mcts @ 62.3cts/ton average grade; 312% IRR and US$996 million NPV (post tax) • 21 year mine life; US$305million LOM CAPEX, 300ton/hour processing plant.
So by making a peer comparison, let's say if MUS can get to a half of the Gemfields NPV and market cap then you could argue a share price of 50c plus.
This is ignoring the graphite.
All estimates have been made very roughly, please make you own assumptions.
MUS Price at posting:
6.7¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held