Agree that the $2.44m advance is in monthly instalments, but I...

Agree that the $2.44m advance is in monthly instalments, but I based my calculations on a lump sum for simplicity, and also on the assumption that PLY does not see a cent from sales until the $2.44m has been recouped.

I would assume that PLY does not see a cent of the revenue split until T17 has recovered their full advance though, considering the bulk of sales for games typically come in the "launch window" these days. It is rare for a game to blow-up >1 year after release like Among Us did.

In the digital age, self-publishing a game is easier than ever. But on balance, the publishing deal seems ok if you get a big enough advance to transfer risk.

Using this infographic: https://vginsights.com/insights/article/infographic-indie-game-revenues-on-steam

Majority of indie games make less than $4000 in sales. Top 1% make over $7M. Also includes breakdown per genre. I have not really looked into the veracity of this information though.