I didn't say that you said PLL wasn't being shorted ... I asked what makes you think PLL isn't "
heavily shorted" (because 15% is a lot more than 8%). I based that on your statement of
Half the posts on the SYA forum seem to be shorts related as if that is the source of all evil (be thankful Blue Orca doesn't attack SYA). IMO there is much more to being a target than SOI ... and I think you highlighted a couple. But in PLL's case, that counted for nothing as the attack simply pointed elsewhere (Africa ... to the delight of some). PLL has much higher institutuional ownership (than SYA) making access to shares for shorting a lot easy to short PLL.
SYA can calculate the prices for the SYQ JV (you know the CoP and you can infer a Benchmark price ... I mean the ASP for PLL SC is based on a benchmark price ... we don't know exactly what it is so we estimate). Fairly obvious that all SC is shipped to Asia isn't it ... does it matter who the actual end customer is that pays the bill? Unless SYQ is selling to a counterparty that isn't creditworthy and there's no reason for them to take that risk.
IMO (holding both), and limiting this to just NAL, I can clearly see the EBITDA flow to PLL. I know the CoGS and I van estimate the benchmark ASP and there I have Gross Profit and Margin and it all belongs to PLL. I can't do that for SYA because it is SYQ's EBITDA. Sure I could say 75% of that EBITDA ends up as retained earnings for SYA but it is not in SYA's bank account. You have to wait for the JV to make a distribution to its shareholders to collect some, or all, of it. But SYQ has potentially large Capex looming ... which of course could also get some form of debt funding included into the capital structure allowing a higher distribution to be paid out ... but it is all unknown.
Uncertainity is what allows the shorters to profit. Uncertainty about Ewoyaa in PLL's case. Uncertainty about NAL's downstream direction/plans for SYA (since SYA is 75% equity in JV). You find uncertainty and you find someone willing to take the short bet against the long bet (ask CXO also "heavily shorted").
That uncertainty over NAL will start to reduce over the next couple of quarters. That just means the cross-hairs shift. Maybe its Moblan. Maybe its some other thing. Hell PLS still gets shorted. Even ALB is shorted (~4.5%)
(20min delay)