If Sillaro returns to pre-condensate production rates, EV/EBIDTA...

If Sillaro returns to pre-condensate production rates, EV/EBIDTA will be about 2. That means that if a hydrocarbon major (Petrorep?) could buy PVE for the current market cap, they could pretty much pay of the acquisition cost and the debt within two years, just with the cashflow from Sillaro and Castello. Everything after that would be profit, with the rest of the reserves and the exploration portfolio thrown in for free!

Of course a takeover is not going to happen - and the cash flow is going into further development and further exploration and so forth, rather than being distributed as dividends. But even if some of that misfires, Sillaro is proof that the potential rate of return on that further investment is huge (though past experience suggests it will take much longer to come to fruition than company timelines suggest).

The only downside risks here seem to be far-field "Black Swans". An earthquake damaging PVE's plants or wells. An Italian government nationalising all of its assets. A massive downgrade to the Sillaro reserves or flow rates.

It's hard not to see PVE as seriously undervalued.