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Ozyoioi

749 Posts.

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28/02/19

09:15

Post #: 37597000
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Originally posted by asb83: ↑

You're assuming they are going to convert the cash into the equivalent amount in assets. There's a lot of water to pass under the bridge for that to happen. I think you need to discount the cash they have given the risk associated with execution, lithium price, uncertainty, etc.

For example, what if the price of lithium is half of what it is now in 2 year's time? The money they have spent at that time certainly wouldn't have been converted to the equivalent in assets. I'm not saying this is going to happen, but you need to factor in such risk. In my valuation I have discounted the cash they have for the appropriate risk. My fair value is now at $2.

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If the Lithium price falls further, it is actually beneficial for GXY.

GXY doesn't have debt and profitability modelled on a much higher Lithium price as is the case with the newer and not-yet-started project. Plus they have an awesome cash buffer.

If prices fell, new Lithium projects would stall, there would then be an impending spike in price when the 'S-curve' for demand truly hits.

FYI, latest surveys out of the USA, 3/4 believe electric cars are the future.

Last edited by Ozyoioi: 28/02/19

GXY Price at posting: $2.22 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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