The numbers have been crunched by professional bio-statisticians Berry Consultants, providing confirmation of what we strongly believe, that the results we've been seeing are no fluke.
I think a lot of us serious LTH investors came to the conclusion our own way: One was that we already knew from earlier extensive lab experiments and trials (for cancers) that NUZ-001 (ie monepantel), is undoubtedly an active mTOR modulator that significantly up regulates the autophagy function. So if autophagy is going to play an important role in treating neurodegenerative diseases like MND/ALS, then we already know this is the drug likely to do it (and do it with minimal unwanted side effects - which in itself is a hell of a competitive advantage). Then we get further evidence of the desired changes during the trial from the suppression of the MND/ALS related inflammations, very soon after the drug is taken by the trial patients; note that researchers strongly believe that MND inflammation plays a crucial part in the propagation of the disease, but whether it is or isn't, the inflammation is a vital symptom of the disease, and its suppression is a very postitive indicator. We also had positive readings from no less than three biomarkers that researchers have indicated are very likely important. On top of that we've had the apparent increased survival of patients and apparent slowing in degeneration, from a disease that is known for its relentless progression; yes it may be a fluke from the small number of patients, but that's very unlikely as has been indicated by the professional bio-statisticians' (Berry Consultants) results. Unlike many other treatments that are being touted on the basis of a single type of evidence, biomarker or whatever, it's the multiplicity of lines of evidence that gives many of us here our confidence.
Finally, the idea that there is little chance of a deal between now and the end of the phase 2 trial is a very dangerous bet in my opinion. As the trial progresses and we see these multiple lines of evidence confirmed, the chance of some sort of deal during the trial period will increase at an exponential rate. Just my opinion, and to be treated as such, but I for one think that the chances of NUZ-001 (monepantel) not delivering any kind significant benefit is already approaching zero. What the Healey trial will do is it will help to confirm and quantify that benefit.
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