Thanks @asx11 Not sleeping but waiting. The wait is best understood in the context of the recent Gems Conference presentation. We are reminded at this very late stage [late relative to the 29 May options] that momentum is accelerating towards a return on AD-214 investment. There are two pathways for Phase 2 - out licencing or co-development - but both appear to offer the prospect of an upfront return on investment to date.
It begs the question as to the size of the upfront! I guess the quantum value is under lock and key or is it being shouted from the rooftops? One has to wonder given that the presentation advises that IPF assets command upfront license payments of more than US$45m. Do you raise expectations and disappoint or do you under promise and over deliver? To deliver or not to deliver, that is the question.
In forming an opinion one might like to glance back at the composition of the Board of Directors and the panel of Scientific Advisors. So, we are accelerating towards a key announcement and investors are asleep. The science is compelling, the Phase 1 extension was clearly targeted to provide answers to specific partnering questions and there appears to be competitive tension in the process of negotiation. Finally, I would point out the size of the market opportunity for a therapeutic treatment for lung and kidney fibrosis and consider the size of the upfront relative to the unmet need.
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