Great analysis @wenty, I feel iike you should add the standard super fund disclaimer here:"past performance is not representative of future performance"
Despite the warranted disclaimer, I am a firm believer in the future of CXO and agree that 2019 will be our year (if it's not, something has gone very wrong). Contrary to popular/modern investing principles, I have a non-diversified portfolio, it basically consists of CXO (and I'm a fair way in) and cash, and thats it. I personally consider the rest of the market to be too much of a risk at the moment (I know how crazy that sounds....invest in a spec/explorative stock because It involves less risk than the wider market......I have considered the fact that I could very well be crazy).
I specialise in the logistics field (I knew very little about actually mining before this stock and thank the expertise on this forum for continually teaching me about the many things I do not know), and looked for a company that I consider to be able to avoid the expensive and often underestimated supply chain issues that a number of mining companies experience (I am well away from anything in South America for this very reason). The more I came to understand the CXO story, it began to tick a number of boxes (outside of its proximity to infrastructure), and accordingly (in my view) I have bought more and more shares. Objectively, and with my financial background (former life), I own too many shares now in a single company, but am not prepared to sell back to a more balanced position because I can only see improvements in SP from here. I keep an eye on the broader global economy, and whilst there is talk about a pull back/recession, my latest on this is that it is not likely to be in 2019. This to me means that despite the global pull-back from risk related stocks, value will still be recognised where it is warranted. I think that CXO is in the box seat for this kind of appreciation - all the fundamentals are set:
1. significantly increased resource with more to come
2. recent re-commitment of international players
3. fantastic infrastructure and supply proximity to operations
4. A whole heap of announcements to come in the next few months, including the DFS and more broadly the potential of a least two battery manufacturing plants in northern Australia.
5. A max of a 6 month wait to see where this company is going (we should have a very good idea by Mar, but definitely by Jul 19)
Its for all these reasons that I am so heavily committed and not planning on selling. Its funny to say, that from my perspective, that one of the safest places to invest in the current market might actually be a more 'risky' investment - supported perhaps by your stats in that CXO has been one of the better performers in an under performing sector of the market.
Time only will determine whether my decision has been a good one or not, and I am fully aware that anything can happen, but believe in this company and its prospects.
Happy new year all, lets see what 2019 has in store for us.
