Well my fellow CXO holders: 2018 is coming to an end. It has been a tough year for lithium stocks, a year I am sure many are happy to wave goodbye to, and are hoping for a much better 2019.
The Sept-Dec lithium bull run didn't occur this year as it had done in the previous 2-3 years. A positive: when looking at how 20 asx lithium stocks performed during Sept 1st - Dec 31st this year, CXO is surprisingly the standout, and is the only stock to have increased in SP over this time:
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
| 1 |
|
Sept 1st |
Dec 31st |
+/- ($) |
+/- (%) |
| 2 |
CXO |
$ 0.046 |
$ 0.052 |
$ 0.006 |
13.04% |
| 3 |
MIN |
$ 15.18 |
$ 14.98 |
-$ 0.200 |
-1.32% |
| 4 |
KDR |
$ 1.10 |
$ 1.07 |
-$ 0.030 |
-2.73% |
| 5 |
LIT |
$ 0.10 |
$ 0.094 |
-$ 0.006 |
-6.00% |
| 6 |
EMH |
$ 0.33 |
$ 0.29 |
-$ 0.040 |
-12.12% |
| 7 |
GXY |
$ 2.73 |
$ 2.23 |
-$ 0.500 |
-18.32% |
| 8 |
NMT |
$ 0.295 |
$ 0.24 |
-$ 0.055 |
-18.64% |
| 9 |
TAW/A40 |
$ 0.325 |
$ 0.255 |
-$ 0.070 |
-21.54% |
| 10 |
PLS |
$ 0.81 |
$ 0.625 |
-$ 0.18 |
-22.36% |
| 11 |
ORE |
$ 4.25 |
$ 3.19 |
-$ 1.060 |
-24.94% |
| 12 |
PSC |
$ 0.028 |
$ 0.021 |
-$ 0.007 |
-25.00% |
| 13 |
LTR |
$ 0.032 |
$ 0.024 |
-$ 0.008 |
-25.00% |
| 14 |
AVZ |
$ 0.11 |
$ 0.067 |
-$ 0.043 |
-39.09% |
| 15 |
PLL |
$ 0.155 |
$ 0.093 |
-$ 0.062 |
-40.00% |
| 16 |
LPD |
$ 0.025 |
$ 0.015 |
-$ 0.010 |
-40.00% |
| 17 |
AJM |
$ 0.27 |
$ 0.155 |
-$ 0.110 |
-41.51% |
| 18 |
4CE |
$ 0.026 |
$ 0.015 |
-$ 0.011 |
-42.31% |
| 19 |
BGS |
$ 0.30 |
$ 0.16 |
-$ 0.140 |
-46.67% |
| 20 |
SYA |
$ 0.034 |
$ 0.018 |
-$ 0.016 |
-47.06% |
| 21 |
GSC/INR |
$ 0.325 |
$ 0.16 |
-$ 0.165 |
-50.77% |
When looking at how these stocks performed for the entire year of 2018, surprisingly CXO fared the 2nd best (WARNING: this is a very ugly & disappointing table!):
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
| 1 |
|
31/12/2017 |
31/12/2018 |
+/- ($) |
+/- (%) |
| 2 |
MIN |
$ 21.14 |
$ 14.98 |
-$ 6.16 |
-29.14% |
| 3 |
CXO |
$ 0.078 |
$ 0.052 |
-$ 0.026 |
-33.33% |
| 4 |
GXY |
$ 3.83 |
$ 2.23 |
-$ 1.60 |
-41.78% |
| 5 |
KDR |
$ 1.88 |
$ 1.07 |
-$ 0.81 |
-43.09% |
| 6 |
PLS |
$ 1.115 |
$ 0.625 |
-$ 0.49 |
-43.95% |
| 7 |
TAW/A40 |
$ 0.46 |
$ 0.255 |
-$ 0.205 |
-44.57% |
| 8 |
LTR |
$ 0.044 |
$ 0.024 |
-$ 0.02 |
-45.45% |
| 9 |
NMT |
$ 0.44 |
$ 0.24 |
-$ 0.20 |
-45.45% |
| 10 |
LIT |
$ 0.20 |
$ 0.094 |
-$ 0.106 |
-53.00% |
| 11 |
PLL |
$ 0.20 |
$ 0.093 |
-$ 0.107 |
-53.50% |
| 12 |
ORE |
$ 6.94 |
$ 3.19 |
-$ 3.75 |
-54.03% |
| 13 |
GSC/INR |
$ 0.35 |
$ 0.16 |
-$ 0.19 |
-54.29% |
| 14 |
EMH |
$ 0.66 |
$ 0.29 |
-$ 0.37 |
-56.06% |
| 15 |
PSC |
$ 0.053 |
$ 0.021 |
-$ 0.032 |
-60.38% |
| 16 |
AJM |
$ 0.395 |
$ 0.155 |
-$ 0.24 |
-60.76% |
| 17 |
AVZ |
$ 0.23 |
$ 0.067 |
-$ 0.163 |
-70.87% |
| 18 |
SYA |
$ 0.07 |
$ 0.018 |
-$ 0.052 |
-74.29% |
| 19 |
LPD |
$ 0.059 |
$ 0.015 |
-$ 0.044 |
-74.58% |
| 20 |
BGS |
$ 0.755 |
$ 0.16 |
-$ 0.595 |
-78.81% |
| 21 |
4CE |
$ 0.08 |
$ 0.015 |
-$ 0.065 |
-81.25% |
So in terms of our performance against our peers, CXO hasn't done too badly, all things considered. Could have been worse...
Yet amidst the bloodbath that has been for Li stocks this year, global EV sales continue to increase month on month and year on year, and the major players continue to make big deals and acquisitions, spending and investing billions, securing supply. Tide has to turn for Li stocks at some stage...
For CXO, even though the SP doesn't reflect it, it has IMO been a good year, with accomplishments such as:
* Increasing our total resource by nearly 400%, from 1.8MT to 7.1MT, including:
- a 60% increase in Grants from 1.8MT to 2.89MT
- 2.15MT at BP33
- 1.30MT at Sandras
- 0.79MT at Carlton
*release of PFS showing great project economics
* Non-binding (soon to be binding) agreement with Ruifu for offtake and US$35mil prepayment facility
* Improved recoveries and grade from metallurgical testwork
*Discovery of additional and soon to be maiden resources at Hang Gong and Lees-Booths
*Drilling of multiple new targets down south in Bynoe area
*Release of Environmental Impact Statement
*Further investment by Yahua and investment by Ruifu making them our 1st and 2nd largest holders
2018 is/was the year for CXO to set em up. 2019 will be the year for CXO to knock em down!
2019 will be the year CXO becomes Australia's next lithium producer
Something interesting: Right now CXO has a MC of $34.8mil, and has 7.1MT of spod.....that equals $4.90/t of spod. Right now CXO has a MC of $34.8mil, and has 244,085t of lithium carbonate....that equals $142/t of carbonate. Talk about being way undervalued!!
More tonnage to be added in January, construction to begin in 6-7 months, mining in 9-10 months...I'm tipping Australia's next lithium producer won't remain undervalued for too much longer
IMO
GLTAH
