Spot on, again, although I think they will try to push out Sep creditors to paint a rosier picture for the quarterly. They will lean on payables hard to try to shore up the liquidity position. I'd be asking for COD if I was a supplier (although ATO BAS likely doing the heavy lifting). I won't predict the cash movement for the quarter as the creditors will be so highly managed. Creditor days were sitting at ~110 days last quarter, I reckon that blows out hard (albeit we won't be able to work it out from the quarterly). If suppliers tighten the screws it is game over.
Remember the ~20M net cash out for the quarter was net after 20M Rev. So they actually had total expenses of ~40M (for 2 months of production). In a non creditor-managed world you'd expect >35M in production costs for a full quarter, so chuck in another 9M in overheads and interest and you are looking at maybe a 1M net surplus for the quarter (and that is without fixing the creditor blow out from last quarter).
Under current arrangements they have 9 months to generate 31M in surplus operating profit after *all* costs and at this rate they seem to generate maybe $1M pq. It is cap raise or debt restructure. There is no other math that works. Remember they have done this with macro conditions as positive as they could be with AUD cratering and Pb holding up very, very well. If that moves against them this blows up very quickly. So they are either in the hands of Taurus or in the hands of the brokers to bail them out. Pretty certain I predicted a 6c raise a while back. Happy to stay with that prediction.
Surely they announce board and management changes as part of the next raise. How much can a koala bear??
G1A Price at posting:
10.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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