I think its a valid risk to contemplate, not sure you actually have to be concerned.
Make an announcement to the effect of success in this space and you've got pull demand. Not just from consumer level but also government.
A broadspectrum solution (ok a few steps ahead) developed from this technology or suitable off the shelf currently in the abscence of anything superior indirectly forms part of the modern Defence solution. Doubt BP could or would stand in the way.
More commercially, as has been discussed here before, there's competitive BP forces, additionally the natural growth / emergence of viruses. Vaccines (presumably?) slowed covid but didnt stop it despite the compulsion, etc.
Accordingly, I suspect the political and consumer power is much much higher than pre COVID on this front now. Per above, the world was effectively 'stopped' by COVID. Not sure what it is but a put a price tag on that and its $$$T.
Add the Biden administrations view of Big Pharma, Hollywood's etc. Targets for cures around the world...cost to government of current solutions, not just in terms of medication, but in aggregate. Dont forget BP is paid by government in the key markets at least.
The other argument I see is the current cost of development for BP. Why spend literally $Bs in development pa plus ancillary costs of present model, if you can buy a cheap to produce 'aspirin', job done, own market. Stock pile for next pandemic, print cash, repeat. Move on to another health frontier with profit, corporate infrastructure etc
What of potential applications where there is no cure currently HSV (comprehend its a premature call) or viruses? Might be an approach path to illustrate if BP were initially 'resistant' or stalled looking for return on current IP.
At a guess, based on yesterday's news and complexity of scientific debate, Im working off it being a supplement initially. As BMD/Thaliat suggest we could get an upgrade on that view in coming weeks.
Wrt our management, on reflection, I think the announcement approach was reasonable (the quarterly was candid imo) and ultimately the potential for accolade as well as cash will outweigh the alternative.
Again, looking forward a little, but I think part of the challenge here will be that on the assumption it 'has legs' it will actually need cross border production at very least.
With the supply chain, onshoring conversation, the risk management piece etc, etc I dont think it will be purely a BP commercial revenue discussion. I have occasion to discuss how 'some of things' (not medical) play out and profit is not just $$$$ that get considered.
It is interesting to contemplate how we get from here to there. Too many permutations to discuss atm, but the ASML example comes to mind for the alternate Bull case.
if were ultimately fair to middling I think were a niche use case. Timing of readiness will be critical to understanding where this lands.
Management think they can improve on this right? which adds another dimension to contemplate.
Others might have different views
Appreciate your insights and clarification yesterday BMD!
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