I did exactly the same thing.
I was waiting for the fifth PLS BMX auction to verify the most current spod price- US$6586CIF (SC6)
A cargo of 5,000 dmt at a target grade of ~5.5% lithia was presented for sale on the platform
with delivery expected from 15 June 2022.
Strong interest was received in both participation and bidding by a broad range of buyers.
Pilbara Minerals intends to accept the highest bid of USD$5,955 /dmt (SC5.5, FOB Port
Hedland basis) which on a pro rata basis for lithia content (inclusive of freight costs) equates
to a price of approximately USD$6,586 /dmt (SC6.0, CIF China basis).
I used 6600 and plugged it into our projected 4.4MT of SC6 over the LOM.
Then, I plugged that figure into the NPV formula and at current prices, NAL NPV is. 3.622 billion
If you account for Piedmonts cut year 23/24, its US$3.463 billion NAL NPV(Please read the PFS carefully. It continually states their offtake is for 50%. That is the only common figure mentioned through all announcements. Sayona chose to reference January 11 2021 announcement- 60K or 50%)
pg21
For the contracted volume to Piedmont Lithium Inc (refer ASX announcement 11 January 2021), a price of
US$900/t is assumed over 2023‐24, while the remainder of the concentrate production uses market prices.
From 2025 and beyond, Sayona is reverting back to market prices for the entire production as it seeks to
pursue a lithium transformation project on‐site, leveraging prior investments, in line with its commitments
with the Government of Québec related to its acquisition of NAL.
I also understand the importance of an understated PFS.
JAN 11 2021 announcement-
Piedmont has also agreed a binding offtake arrangement under which it will acquire up to 60,000 tpa of
spodumene concentrate or 50% of Sayona Québec’s production, whichever is greater (“Supply
Agreement”). The Supply Agreement is for Sayona Québec’s life‐of‐mine operations and is based on
market pricing with a minimum price of US$500/t and maximum price of US$900/t on a delivered basis
to Piedmont’s planned lithium hydroxide plant in North Carolina.( I still cant find the 113k agreement anywhere. I guess PLL and SYA will continue to debate this because somewhere along the line , it has changed from 60 to 113 (both 50%) and from LOM offtake to year 23/24) I have tracked it down to around February 2021, ( just after the original offtake), which is when Piedmont started quoting the 113 figure very quietly, while we were still quoting 60.
AND pg 50
Sales from 2023 and 2024 are based on 50% of the
concentrate sales at average benchmarked
spodumene market prices and the remaining 50% of
concentrate sales at the Piedmont Lithium contract
price. Average benchmarked spodumene market
prices are used for 2025-2026. From 2027 onwards,
the spodumene concentrate price used the Wood
Mackenzie Q1 2022 real contract price forecast.
I dont mind a conservative PFS.
It allows financial institutions to be comfortable with lending at these base case scenarios, and the DFS will be almost certain to outperform the PFS. which prevents the SP/MC from getting smashed when the more accurate DFS is released.
I guess we wont need financial assistance for a while, with this latest CR now upon us, unless there is another acquisition.
And make no mistake here, this CR was planned.
PFS......SP moves down.....CR. etc....... Seen it many times before. And wrapped up in a day.....all preplanned signed, sealed and delivered before the trading halt.
Long term, its all good, but an extra billion shares on the register....that sux, plain and simple
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