Hi Sundance001,
What is the CAPEX intensity of that other project? Around $115p/t if I recall correctly. I just can't see a project with that sort of CAPEX intensity being funded in these conditions.
Also, that forecast OPEX of $21 does not include tariffs to be paid to infrastructure providers if the infrastructure is operated by a third party, as management from that company has intimated will happen. IMO what you will find is that the OPEX of the project you are referring to will end up being closer to $35p/t+.
I can't see any significant amounts of product from a 35mtpa operation finding a buyer in Europe. Noble has no IO relationships in that region, only in Asia. Also, most of Europe has supply channels already in place and IO growth demand from the region isn't strong enough to be adding any significant new amounts to the market.
EQX only needs to find a buyer/strategic partner willing to take 1-2.5mtpa and the entire project becomes much more attractive. The other positive is the 64-65%Fe product of EQX, which not only will attract a price premium, but will also be more attractive to European buyers than the 62%Fe product the project you are referring to has.
If conditions stay as is though, any developer is going to have a hard time of it trying to secure finance. If IO trades in the $60-70p/t range for 12-18 months and the project you are referring to can't secure finance, does it have the cash on hand to be able to continue operations, or will it need to engage in even more dilution?
Good luck!
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0.120 | 13704 | 1 |
0.140 | 10000 | 1 |
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