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20.5¢ resapp health limited

Ann: Positive Results for Australian Prospective Paediatric Study, page-184

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Peter_C

729 Posts.

405

03/09/18

20:32

Post #: 35386391
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Originally posted by moneybags ↑

Have not been here for a looooong time. as was stopped out an sold 80% at .32c last year. :-( (in between 2c to 8c) just to brag ;-)

But i feel the next couple of years will be very interesting..to say the least.

My 2 cents.

3 scenarios: one with very pessimistic 1% of the target market captured, another other with a very optimistic 80% of the market captured

SCENARIO 1: IF 1% of market cornered

1% x 240million people x $5 per pop = $12 million revenue per annum
plus >$20million income from our WHO partner
= at least $32million income per annum.

PE of 40= $1.28 billion market cap
1.2billion/ current `$200milion market cap= 6
6x$0.30 =$1.80 share price

SCENARIO 2: IF 80% of market cornered

80% x 240 million people at $5 per pop = $950 million of revenue.

PE of 40 and you get $40 billion market cap…

Which translates roughly to a $60 share price

Note: assuming $5 per use RAP management have suggested they will charge anywhere between $5-10 per use, but I erred on the conservative side with these calculations to cover the operating costs.
So we see that even the so-called super optimistic calculation is based on the lowest sale price per use, and it doesn’t factor in expansion into India, Indonesia, other Asian markets plus South America. Remember our current target market, namely; the US, Europe and China, ‘only’ captures a third of the world’s population!

SCENARIO THREE: ResApp used by just two Chinese telehealth companies

Two Chinese telehealth companies as per 3 May 2016 Investor presentation:
Ping An Haoyisheng: 95,000 appointments per day * 360 days= 34 million appointments per year. Assuming 30% respiratory = 10 million potential RAP users.
Chunyuyisheng: 229 questions per minute 8 *10 hours * 360 days = 50 million appointments per year. Assuming 30% respiratory= 15 million potential RAP users.
25 million * $5 per use = $125 million potential revenue
PE of 40 and you get $5billion market cap…

Which translates to a share price of $7.50

(So share price calculation that it could range anywhere from $1.80 - $60.)

All comes down to...........
1) The risk investors ascribe to the stock.
2) The anticipated revenue RAP can generate.
3) How long it will take before RAP can generate revenue

View attachment 1273874

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Good start to introduce quantitative analysis. One thing to point out is 32M revenue does NOT mean 32M NPAT. So the profit margin should be included in your analysis. For example, if the margin is 15%, then the NPAT is 4.8M. With PE of ~40, the market cap would be 192M and target price is ~0.26. I do think this is quite pessimistic because 1% is too small and multiple tests are expected to be performed for every single patient to increase the diagnostic confidence (because it is extremely cheap and fast); so if twice for each patient, then the target price is 0.52 in the extremely pessimistic scenario. For the optimistic one, you can calculate your numbers and I believe it would make you think how cheap it is today.

Of course it depends on the US results and FDA approval. But not far from there imo.

RAP Price at posting: 23.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
7 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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