@Grainger; it's not about being respectful. It's about...

@Grainger; it's not about being respectful. It's about stating the facts and how things work; stating the obvious is not always pleasing. Would you have put your last cent in an enterprise with a high risk of failure!? (Elon Musk after the third failure of the Falcon rocket) Now look at his rewards...
I have done my DD, just as you have posted some of yours here. Then you have other personal factors (past investing experience, personal background, connections in the business etc..) that also have a big role to play.
I will not elaborate on my "trade secrets", if you want to call them that way..I am sure you understand.

As to "still pretty risky" is a relativ statement and would need to be put into context.

Is there a chance that Recce could fail?

Sure, but based on your DD you should also be able to see the factors that significantly de-risk this company at this stage and show why the "published success rates of academic drugdiscovery and development are 75%" cannot be fully applied or has to be at least adjusted. It's because of these small differences that I am already here with a bigger investment.

There is no right answer here....either you see it and decide that the potential outweighs the risk or not...then it's the additional "guts and brains", the wording you don't seem to like, that still makes you take the first step and definitely not always leading to success.

But without ever trying one will never succeed.