CLA

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Ann: Positive Scoping Study Completed on Opuwo Cobalt Project, page-434

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cobalt play

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07/11/18

02:00

Post #: 36410931
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Originally posted by phuket guy ↑

Golfer mate????: "This thing is ripe for the picking" ? do I sense some bullishness welling up in your groin?

Mate what if cobalt price goes back to 80,000 a ton?. I'm very roughly calulating here for brevity purposes -If -as I expect - Opex is around 45,000 a ton. (I wish we knew from effin SS).

Then Off a 5 mill ton plant -they would get after current levels of ore separation roughly 4,700 tons of Cobalt a year.
At USD 80,000 a tone (means Co price up 9% from here) CLA could make roughly around USD 25,000 a ton on it (Ebitda) so thats very roughly 115 mill USD a year or 160 mill AUD!

So even if CLA Capex is as high as USD5-600 mill they can pay that back in a few years (less than 10) and still pay some dividends on top. But that Capex may well be lower as some expect if they go open pit first. (I wish we knew from Effin SS)

Again this is all my (bullish) outlook and very rough numbers- but just do the sums? Its not untoward, the Co price is low now and is at 73,000 a ton. So it only needs to go up 9% from here.

So I then ask you...

If you were a global big miner, battery maker or end user like a car/ truck/bus/ bike/ ship/aircraft maker what would you pay for potential earnings of AUD160 mill a year for the next 25-30 years? - plus more importantly to have access to a globally significant supply of ethical cobalt so your car making, battery making or computer making business doesnt go up the Swanee river or go extinct or get held hostage by the Chinese?

Would you pay
1x potential earnings? (20 cents a share)?
2x potential earnings ( 45 cents share)?
3x earnings (60 cents a share?)
or 5 x potential earnings (1$ a share)?

And what do you think the majority of shareholders would accept as a minimum?

So to me the potential price range for a potential buyout is now between 20 cents to 1$. Personally I'm now thinking and talking about 30-35 cents- So yes Ive down graded my 1$ calls cos the Cobalt price has tanked since then (as I've said before) - but if the Co price does go back up to USD 90,000 a ton (a 25% increase) then 1$ would be very reasonable again IMO. no? just do the numbers.

This is not "upramping" as some of you keep rabitting on about its just simple rational business valuation logic. Look I have no idea where the Co price will go, - Ive done my research and Im personally bullish on it (did you know?) and remember some of us are holding investing long term into where it may be in a few years (as are you). not where it will be tomorrow.

Conversely of course if Co price falls to below USD 50,000 a ton long term (down 30%) - were all royally screwed.

So we are in effect holding a highly geared warrant/option on the cobalt price. The smart boys here know that.

So just now at these cobalt prices - and with a longer term view -you calling it to 10 cents buyout is probably a little bearish IMO and me calling it to 1$ is probably a little bullish IMO. Thats why I say Ive downgraded my expectations a bit with the extra Co supply recently pumpingout of DRC. Im thinking 30-35 centish now. But that will change with the Co price- or the next war in DRC - or if a better new Battery technology is found etc etc..

As I say you pays your money and you takes your chance.

Expand

...Conversely of course if Co price falls to below USD 50,000 a ton long term (down 30%) - were all royally screwed...

So will the EV Revolution because even with the DRC ramping production as much as possible it will fall way way short of meeting cobalt needs in a couple of years since there will probably not be even one cobalt junior anywhere that could make enough profit for a mine..

CLA Price at posting: 7.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

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