Interesting discussion all round here. Looking at the past few...

Interesting discussion all round here. Looking at the past few threads, I am guessing I am one of the holders and acquirers who have been around longest with GRR. For what it's worth, without going in to some long complex debate, here's what I am pretty certain is going on. Not in chronological order:

1. WB had a barny with the board, and major S/H got jack of him, same as our last MD. Very obvious. I don't think there's too much argument here.
2. Guessing root cause was around showing perhaps too much short term prudence around cash flow. Versus what has been management strategy now for numerous years in terms of divi. Payout ratio remains valid even in a decreasing profit environment
3. Shangang starting to wonder why they don't just privatise it now. Boot Wayne, and start the review
4. I have been waiting 4 days now for a call back from Michelle. Therefore have the view that either she's got the flu, got the runs, not interested in managing the company for the little shareholders any longer, or has been made aware by the major SH of some sort of "intent". Will need to wait through September perhaps to see this play out
5. Most of the debate around pellet prices is 1 dimensional and I haven't seen anyone yet make the link to AUD:USD price, which is a big variable. Yes pellet prices were coming down last quarter. However aud conversion average would have been around 94.5. This quarter conversion coming down between 92-93c. This probably offsets just, the reduction in pellet prices. Premium to IO price remains as a %, but not as a raw $$$ number. For those trying to factor some math, don't forget that

like I said last Friday, the questions now remains:
1. If you think a buyout is coming? Then average down (ooohhhhh insert a disclaimer here that this isn't advice blah blah)
2. If you think shangang is bringing price down? Then make some noise with company as it will speed up process
3. If you are in for the long haul and a return to surplus and divi territory? Then what a beautiful price to buy at
4. If you are a short term trader? Don't bother, there are better stocks to short
5. If you have a fundamental belief that the Chinese economy will continue to grow, albeit not at the 8% it has in the past, which leads to building and consumption of these materials? Then you're in the right spot

the biggest variable for anyone holding and buying long like I am, is management renewal now. I hate to say, but until this gets solved, I will need to wait, which may mean missing out on these prices.

So if I have confused anyone any more than you already were, now we're in the same boat

all the best