IMO, the nickel price in the last 2-3 months was inflated by hype due to concerns of future nickel shortages especially class 1 type. Current nickel inventories look healthy so the Ni price inflation of late was all hype. This Tsingshan news has put a halt to this hype and the NI price is correcting itself.
But lets not kid ourselves. What is the current major consumor of Ni and has the biggest affect on Ni price??? Stainless steel. What is the current EV market share globally? I recon it's less than 5%. Whats the forcasted growth of EV's???
BloombergNEF 2020 forecast for annual electric vehicle sales are:
Even if stainless steel doesn't growth in the next 10 years (which it will) the EV market share growth will have a significant impact on Ni supply. For you to say the long term nickel narrative is dead, is completely inaccurate IMO.
- 10% share by 2025 (~9m pa)
- 28% share by 2030 (~24m pa)
- 58% share by 2040 (~54m pa)
Ann: Potential Diversification into the EV Battery Supply Chain, page-20
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