Hey guys,Just looking at this with a fresh pair of eyes, as...

Hey guys,

Just looking at this with a fresh pair of eyes, as today was the first time I heard about TRS.

After reading the comments here, are we potentially running the risk of missing the devil in the details? e.g.: that this is a cyclical stock doing what a cyclical stock does.

I haven't completed my analysis yet, but this is probably a gross market overreaction, much like what happened to Sigma Healthcare; SIG ended up rebounding almost 20+% before dipping due to recent ASX sell off/US equities panic.

If you guys refer to the two images below, you'll see the peaks and troughs of SP correlate perfectly with the peaks and troughs of EBITDA. I believe the reason why so many people are disappointed is because they bought not quite at the bottom of the cycle e.g.: the trough. I'd be very surprised if this doesn't stage a rebound over the next 2 - 4 months, albeit it may not go up 40%, but 15 - 20% should be possible, along with a relatively healthy dividend.

As guys can see, the $10 - $11M NPAT falls within the possible ranges of NPAT during the life-cycle of TRS. As you can also see, when TRS had a NPAT of $9.1M its SP was ~$4.5 - $5, which leads me to believe this ~40% drop is a gross overreaction. I'll continue researching tonight and may enter a small position tomorrow, then average down, although I may get the opportunity to.

Also a final note, I don't believe retail spending is weak at the moment as my other holding (KMD) reported healthy numbers and growth. Having said this, when the Australian economy does eventually crash, I suspect this would actually be a catalyst for TRS because people won't be buying premium discretionaries, and would be more inclined to buy the cheap crap.

Just my 2c. Cheers,

SB