Hi All,
Fundamentally the company and its prospects still remain intact. In fact they continue to improve in the medium term and beyond. While most price appreciation is likely to occur in the short term, this is not something I concern myself with. The impatience of investors has presented some excellent opportunities of late for he true believers of the project. At $1.07, the prospect of buying at 58c would see many liquidate what they could, given the strong sentiment at the time. A strong finance deal, which I am cautiously, yet optimistically expecting, will shift psychology towards the stock price here. After all, LRV is in the position to negotiate. Likewise, a stock price is not the company itself, just the approximation that the summation of investors ascribe to it. If person A buys a Ferrari for 500k and the moment he drives out of the dealership, someone shouts at him offering 100k, that does not make the value so.
For those with spare time, and I assume that is many of the resident naysayers here, given that they seem to trawl and refresh/post at will... I would recommend reading Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb. Too often do investors mistake one realisation among all possible random histories as the most representative one, forgetting that there may be others. This survivorship bias implies that the highest performing realisation will be the most visible. Why? Because the losers do not show up. Remember that no one accepts randomness in their own success, only in failure.
To simplify, there are an infinite number of alternative histories that LRV could have followed from IPO until now, it just so happens that where we are now is the one we find ourselves in. Anyone can claim that they had the foresight that this company was destined for this (whether it was in December 2023 or even when the Sb ban hit), but none can truly explain definitively why. I am yet to meet someone who can conclusively prove they will wake up tomorrow, let alone predict a stock price with certainty in 6,12 months or beyond.
In periods like this, it is a great opportunity to accumulate, read, sharpen the tools and exercise the greatest skill an investor should have... being patience. This is something I struggle with as well. I do not speak from a high horse. But what I can say is that too often do people act with such emotion, that great opportunities present themselves in the market. This is why those with a low average sleep tight at night, and happily average up, while those with a high average are sweating and hurling unnecessary vitriol.
Take a deep breath, stay the course and realise that more is out of control than you think it is. If that is too difficult of a concept to grasp, then investing is not for you.
As always, good luck to all. Looking forward to the conclusive approval for Mod 6 and impending finance.
Not investment advice, just some ramblings.
Cheers,
PS
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