Ann: Preliminary Final Report, page-46

morning all,


It is one year ago to this day that I picked AJX in the strategic investment competition. I did however put up my first post at 11 cents on AJX prior to this.

The strategic post was at 16 cents. 13902904

AJX has remained the leader in that competition for most of the past 12 months - the latest results are not out yet - however, I would be surprised if it is still not number one.

The reason at this time IMO that this is of note is that in my mind ------- the times are similar - but for different reasons.

When I put AJX up for competition -------- I truly believed it was different. I still do - and with far less of the (it might not be, but, I think this is the one in many) sorts of thoughts.

I believed it was different as you have all  read of my ideas over the last year - no need for repetition.
I have posted many times early on in the AJX thread that initially I thought AJX could make it to at least $150 million for sure - and an excellent chance of more like $170 million and perhaps a tad more ----------- in AUSTRALIA -

and - 'without' American interest - and, that is the point of my  post.

We have run fairly nicely to the running sheet over this year - and, we have exceeded my targets ----------- why?

Because IMO - we have had American interests and still do - and, they are growing.

From memory - around that 40 ish mark - we had Eddie put in some clients (don't take the 40 as Gospel - it was somewhere in there - no need for exactitude).

Since then - lately we have had clear interest from others - Goldman Sachs we know for sure - and there are others I have heard of.

Now -- this is my point ATM   - I said around August/September that AJX was different.

There were disbelievers then - and, now there are disbelievers that AJX can power on to mulitple dollars very quickly.

I believe that those who hold those opinions are incorrect - for similar reasons to why those other disbelievers a year back were wrong all the way from 10 cents to over $1 - and those reasons are these.

Before AJX began it's big run ------- we, the traders and investors on the ASX just are NOT used to stocks running hard ------------------ 'and' sustaining it.

There are a few - but, they are few and far between. We are so used to tiny companies basically taking our money - and, giving nothing but a red loss on our portfolio by the end of the year --------- small companies that do nothing but raise and raise and raise and promise and promise - but, produce, in the end - nothing.

AJX sounded like a good thing -------- but, so do many others - and, that is the problem - 2 fold - one, how do you sort them ---------- and, 2 the biggest problem I believe --------- how do you get over the emotion of all the others - the takers who don't give -------- a very different kettle of fish.

In the end - at the end of this 12 months -- AJX is the real deal - it has sustained - it looks far better now than then - and it's future is just plain amazing - or at very least looks that way.


Now ---------- I believe we have similar attitudes to the next 12 months that we had back then ----- right now.

I notice many people saying that - AJX can go no further than it is now without large revenue/earnings/whatever else.

And, many of those posters I respect and admire - so, I don't believe they are downramping or similar - I believe that they truly believe what they say.

I am sitting here now - and I am going to tell you that I do NOT share that opinion.

There is an opinion that talk of a parabolic share rise in the next months is NOT possible without large contracts/earnings etc.


I believe that is incorrect -------------- why?

Because of one single thing.

Americans 'think' very differently to Australians.

IF, we were Aussie only -------- I would agree - after all, I said in Oz we had a limit - without American intervention, so, I already agreed with the disbelievers.

However - the trap is that one disregards cultural difference - and, if one is making investment decisions based on what 'should' or 'should not' happen to the MC WITHOUT taking into consideration that cultural difference - then, I believe one will reach the incorrect conclusion.

So - for my friends who do not think AJX can go parabolic - or at least to 4 bucks or 8 bucks Aussie rapidly - because of little or not enough earnings ---------

please remember --------------- we are NOT talking about Aussie driven - we are now talking about US driven ------------ and, may I bring up one simple but mind numbing example -------

THE DOT COM BOOM.

An index that was driven to dizzying heights - with stocks individually reaching MC's of Billions of dollars ------------- with a snowball's chance in hell of ever making a profit - and, in many if not most cases of ever making a buck.

Now - if a stock exchange can created an entire boom from stocks with zip chance of ever making money -----------

how is it not possible for a company with all the possibilities, probabilities and pretty well done deals, with cash to spare and dynamic management, legislative change, and industry step changing technology - to make a parabolic rise in it's SP?

In short -------- I strongly believe that my disbelieving friends are 'wrong'.

Start thinking American - stop thinking Australian.


Can you imagine Australia growing an 'Apple Inc'?

No, I certainly can't. Why? Because we cannot think on that scale. We are a little country, we have a little stock market and a little population.

I met a bloke a few years back who went to America to buy some trucks - I think he was going to buy 6 or 8 - something like that. He said - I thought I was getting pretty big time - multiple million dollar order - I felt I was getting somewhere.
On the plane in the US - he met another bloke - a Yank - who was going to the same place also to buy trucks -- the difference?
The yank was in the market for 200 trucks.
My friend said - that the size of the place and their economy and their thinking just dwarfed him --------- he had no idea of the scale.

Nor do we, I believe - we have no idea of the scale of the market - no idea of the size of the stock market, no idea of the depth of investors pockets and no idea of how Yanks think.

IMO - America will pick AJX up and fly away with it - when many of us think - it is overcooked ----------- the yanks will just change gear and take it to heights we would not think possible - here.

There is no secret from Gavin that both he and Nick expect an 'adjustment' on listing in NY ------------------------- adjustment - means ----------- RERATE.

Now - we may well run hard before listing - but, on listing - we owe - we need to get those new investors a return - a 'solid' return.

Then, we need the SP to perform after that.

So, IMO - we are not talking about the difference between say 90 cents Aussie and $1.20 Aussie - I believe we are talking about a multiple move not dissimilar to the type of move we have had in the last year.

Once again - I could be wrong - but, the last time I wasn't wrong - and the evidence I see before me is far more concrete this time.

In short ------- sit back, have a cuppa and think like a Yank for a while and see what you get.

It might just be instructive if you can do it.

Have a great day all --

I will disappear today for a few days later this morning -- the gems of the Hart's Ranges beckon - and, there ain't no signal there.

Pinto