QHL 5.15% 25.5¢ quickstep holdings limited

Ann: Preliminary Final Report, page-6

  1. 79 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 7
    Just quickly looking over the sales numbers and there's something fishy going on. The first line of part 2 of appendix 4E (revenue) doesn't add up.

    If you do the numbers, FY17 revenue of $51,915,000 grew by $1,717,000 off an FY16 Base of $50,198,000 which is only 3.4%, not the 4% published. That's quite misleading... in which creative maths world does 3.4% round to 4%?? It should be 3%...

    I don't know who we are paying to prepare these statements, but in the listed market, that's a bit of a joke.

    Also, from the JSF/C130J sales breakdown published, it can be derived that we sell each JSF part for an average of $16.6k (I know there are different parts, vertical tail/panels etc. but the production ratio of these parts will stay the same so for this calculation the average is valid) and each C130J part for $288k ($1,153k for a set of 4).

    So therefore in FY 20, assuming baseline rate production of C130J parts continues at ~27 sets/yr and JSF ramp up continues, peaking at full volume production of ~2700 parts/yr, we will have sales revenue of around ~$76mil. If you take the gross margin on sales from 2016 of ~21% (as this FY's margin of 17.5% was impaired by a learning curve ) then we will have a net profit of ~$16m.

    At current levels of expenditure, as a business we will be only barely profitable in FY20 (depending on Capex) and that is at the full production rate for the JSF. This makes me question the second announcement which implies profitability in FY19 after a year of 'transition' in FY18...

    I think (or hope) the new CEO has worked this out, and imo the only way to be solidly profitable (without winning further contracts) is to reduce the huge corporate and admin costs. (First step should be to sack whoever wrote this 4E haha then reduce the size/pay of the board)

    But yeah please check my numbers if you guys are keen and let me know if they're wrong or don't make sense.

    Good luck to everyone holding Still have hope for this company
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add QHL (ASX) to my watchlist
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.