SIV 0.00% 15.5¢ siv capital limited

Ann: Preliminary Final Report, page-10

  1. 11,099 Posts.
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    On the surface, the ICR excluding GG works out at about 5x (EBITDA of 78? / i of 15.5), which is well above the 2x of AXL.

    However the debt to receivables ratio appears to be about 227%, where in AXL's case the max is 85%.
    I get the debt numerator at 342.7, and the receivables denominator at 151m (29.3 cash + 48.7 + 73 receivables). If I add GST to the receivables, this changes to 342.7 / 163.2 = 210%.
    But in 2017 debt was 315, and cash + receivables (adding 10% GST) 7.3 + 149.4 = 156.7, making 201%. And SIV was compliant in that year - so I would think this covenant, if it existed at all, would be different to AXL's.

    I'm not sure why English is buying when his retail shareholders are still guessing at covenants. Doesn't he have inside information? How can we tell if he is buying as an act of confidence, or confidence building, or as an astute independently analysed investment decision?

    Now we have to trust them that subordinated debt will do the trick, and if that is in place, is that doing the trick only until a surprise dilutive placement solely to the big end of town once the key people have their finances in order to take part?

    I'll not be feeling so trusting unless I know that debt has been sorted out, and what the terms are. Would be nice if we were on a level playing field with all those who know the covenant details.

    Not good enough! No way I am touching SIV at this stage.
 
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