Think last year oil and gas ebit was around 15%. So balance has shifted even more towards IO. In a years time IO EBIT may go back to 70% or less, but still very much overweight. Never likes S32 demerger and strategy of 5 pillars as I saw diversification as a strength, not weakness.
in reality BHP only has 4 pillars, potash will never happen as it's very uneconomic and there will be 50 mothballed existing potash mines that will come on stream easily (think coal steam oil & gas).
now having 70-80% in the same basket isn't a prudent approach particularly when IO price is more likely to be $50-70 long term.
Oil role will diminish long term and price will be capped by wells being easily turned on and off. OD is low grade and more trouble than ins worth. Economies of scale may generate higher returns though and ofcourse Oak Dam is a gold nugget in early stages.
I am yet to see anything from BHP that makes me excited about the future prospect.
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