I've been of the opinion for a while that once the tech is proven and the shop is open for business they'll take their fist full of orders to the banks (and other various finance options) and raise term debt - working capital. Possibly EM will get a decent opportunity to get in somehow. I think that would be the smart play rather than issuing more shares or further dipping in to their personal wealth. At some point from Fred and Co's perspective they need to a) get their money out and b) realise on their investment of time and funds. Having the company stand on it's own feet with "normal" finance behind it makes sense.
A few variables here to consider though:
- Would the banks (etc) lend money to repay personal financing from Fred and Co? - unlikely in my opinion, at least not much of it but maybe the facilities that are due in June - that would probably have to come from profit over the medium term.
- Would they issue bonds - also unlikely at this stage as they are too much of a start up and the coupon would be too high compared to working capital facilities from banks etc.
The crucial aspect to me therefore is firstly demos available to the industry then fairly closely followed by orders. Note the lack of public involvement in all of this - irrelevant I believe. The outfits that buy the chips will do the marketing of their own products, sales will follow, the revolution will have begun and the IP and the surrounding patents will be the gold we all get to enjoy. I'm staying the course but am converting my sentiment to hold, albeit with some reluctance. There is the risk that this all falls over due to timing and the cash just running out - unlikely but possible.
My humble opinion only of course. DYOR
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