While your observation is true, coal exports to Philippines are...

While your observation is true, coal exports to Philippines are being priced off gas shipments to europe (who may be importing coal as well).

The current pricing has little to do with coal cost curves. This from the Department of Energy in the Philippines.

"The coal industry has never been so robust than these past years. From a historical yearly average of 1.5 million MT, local coal production began increasing at a steady rate since 2002. Within a span of 19 years, annual coal production has reached to as high as 15.3 million MT in 2019 and 14.3 million MT in 2021. Consumption likewise, increase steadily as new coal-fired power plants are installed and industries switch to coal because of the highly volatile price of oil."

The point being is that exporters of gas and coal can extract and are extracting super profits. Local regulation over local mining and local generation will prevent this and ensure that the coal price is very much closer to the cost curve. It is now more likely that new generation will use local coal priced at regional or local price.

As for Indonesia, most, if not all gas production will be ringfenced for local use. The EWC line on this was originally there was no local offtake requirement. This may have been true once, not now. While I agree that the Bakries will seek to maximise their profit, their power base is political, and there is a limit to which they can be seen to be working against Indonesian interests and jobs. I reckon there will be a deal where there is an offtake agreed for the power stations (remembering that it is a BOOT scheme and EWC has agreed to transfer the stations for an undisclosed sum) offtake for the locals, and then offtake to encourage regional industrial development. The offtake will be priced to facilitate this.