Following my earlier comments, done some number crunching and can share my observations for what they are worth.
Please Note : With R&D grants often skewing the half-on-half numbers (timing of Grant ?), I have excluded the R&D Income from the Income statement, recalculated the COGS and then offest this value against the R&D expense item. So this leaves the value in my spreadsheet as a expense number which is nett of the Grant.
* The adjusted EBITDA number for H2 FY24 comes in at minus $ 0.401 m (believe that is consistent with what the Company's narrative. Compares with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $ 2.884 m. So a positive swing of approx $ 2.5 m. Significant !
* In establishing a sensible run rate, I have doubled both Income & Expenses for 12 mnths vs 6 months ( after adj the R&D numbers), then added 10 % to the Customer Revenue and 11% onto the Employee expenses to create a base case Run Rate. Slight inflating of these two elements captures the strength of Receivables and Deferred Rev, considers contact wins post FYE and caters for the fact that Ian is scouting for more BD people.
* The Base Case Run Rate, excl R&D as per above, adjusts to $ 8.736 m (Revenue) and an EBITDA loss of $ 1.47 m
* Now to a Sensitivity Analysis. If the Revenue extends to $ 10.48 m ( up by 20 percent over the Base Case), then EBITDA becomes Positive @ $ 0.15m
* If the Revenue extends to $ 11.8 m ( up by 30 percent over the Base Case), then EBITDA extends to Positive $ 1.371 m. If this were achieved, we would be flirting with NPAT profitability.
I understand that many are clouded by the recent and not so recent past, but think of the recent efforts towards diversification, the many new partnerships, the existing contracts not drawn on (particularly Entergy) and so much more. The expenses are below that reported in FY 2022.
If ever operational leverage will be on display FY 25 and FY 26 is a Must Watch IMO.
Have a great weekend.
Rokewa
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