Ann: Preliminary results from SCENESSE adolescent EPP study, page-17

It's worth remembering that the Clinuvel drug has about 95% patient retention, just in this small study all eligible children are requesting access via special access schemes before (hopefully) the label expands. So once a patient is on Scenesse there is a good chance they are on it forever, and gaining not just the ability to live a normal life, but potentially any other benefits such as liver repair (liver issues can be a problem for some EPP sufferers). So how much revenue does an EPP patient generate in 10 years? Does anyone have a good knowledge of this? My guesstimate is that each single patient on average equals $1 Million in revenue in somewhere between 10 and 15 years. And hopefully the EMA moves to 6 implants which will not only smooth out earnings and produce a large jump in revenues, but it will also increase this average amount each patient produces every one year, 10 years etc.

This makes it interesting to compare to other Biotech companies like Pro Medicus who will announce a new contract with whoever for $30 Million etc. over the next 7 or 10 years for example. Most of the time when Clinuvel gains a EPP new patient they are sort of gaining a contract for one million dollars over the next 10 or 15 years or whatever it is. 10 new patients might equal another $5 Million over 6 years? So approval for children between 12 and 17 (of whom there are ~60 just in 4 EU countries) will be very significant in terms of revenue over 10 years, however Clinuvel would not announce this like Pro Medicus does as it is not a guaranteed contract. Interestingly PME with better financials, but not amazingly better, than Clinuvel is now valued close to 100 times greater than CUV (if cash is taken out). A P/E of 360 at PME compared to the CUV P/E which is close to 10 when cash is taken out despite solid growth and some real blockbuster potential in the near term.

All IMO DYOR


ps Hi @Hadrian I really enjoyed your posts on MYX with EPS versus Share price, If you ever had the chance I would love to see you do the same thing here at CUV, it would be most informative.