hi @hicks58 wasn't sure which part of my comment you disagreed with, or whether it was all of it.
In terms of SP, my views are a little pessimistic at the moment based on the complete lack of movement following the recent positive announcements and as far back as the DFS. I guess it is what it is, but at least this gives me a chance to keep accumulating at these prices.
In terms of further dilution to fund the 35% equity component of the project ($115M AUD) versus selling a part of the project, my comments were based on the DFS indicating an FCF of US 153M/yr from yr 5 of the project and what (worst case) we would possibly be raising equity at.
My rough numbers in terms of potential shareholder returns from Yr 5 on for the two different scenarios are below:
- Equity - I've picked 20c/share for the raise - no real basis for this.
- Project share - I've adopted 20%. I feel this is conservative as at this percentage the project partner would pay $115m AUD to receive $30M USD/yr ($42M/Aud/yr) for a minimum of 18yrs and I would hope it would be less than this.
To reach parity between selling a part of the project (in this instance 20%) the equity raise would need to be between 65 to 70c to be comparable.
My numbers are fairly rough and a bit simplistic in the approach (FCF not NPV) and there are probably a bunch of holes in my assumptions so I'd welcome feedback on them. I probably need to think a bit further about the impact of the different funding options considering the potential upsides (after all our resource gives us a LOM of 150 yrs plus).
Cheers
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